Key Global Elections to Watch Out For in 2019

Political Analysis and Talking Points:

• Indian General Election
• South African General Election
• Australian Federal Election
• Canadian Federal Election

GLOBAL ELECTIONS 2019

INDIAN GENERAL ELECTION (MAY)

Indian general elections are scheduled to take place by May. Back in 2014, the BJP (alliance NDA) led by Narendra Modi won a parliamentary majority for the first time since 1991 with 282 seats (272 needed for a majority), sparking a rally in INR and Indian Equities (Sensex & Nifty). However, heading into the 2019 general election, the outlook has become increasingly uncertain after the Ruling BJP Party lost three key states (Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and the crucial state of Madhya Pradesh) to opposition rivals, suggesting that voters have not been entirely convinced by PM Modi. Consequently, this has been reflected in opinion polling suggesting a narrowing lead for PM Modi, raising the risk of a coalition government. Biggest threat to Modi is Congress President Rahul Gandhi who heads the INC party (alliance UPA).

Opinion Polling

Date	Polling Agency	NDA	UPA	Others	Majority
Dec 2018	India TV - CNX	281	124	138	9
Nov 2018	ABP News - Voter	261	119	163	Hung
Oct 2018	ABP News - CSDS	276	112	155	4
Aug 2018	India Today	255	248	46	Hung
May 2018	ABP News CSDS	274	164	105	2
Jan 2018	Republic – C Voter	335	89	119	63
Jan 2018	India Today	309	102	132	37
Jan 2018	ABP News CSDS	301	127	115	29

SOUTH AFRICAN GENERAL ELECTION (MAY)

The South African general election will likely be scheduled for May (previous election held on May 7th2014). In recent years, the ANC party has seen a dent on its reputation following the corrupted Jacob Zuma, who resigned in February 2018 after he was ineligible for a third term. However, since then, Zuma’s successor, Cyril Ramaphosa, has sparked a bounce back in support for the ANC. While South Africa briefly experienced a technical recession, it is unlikely to have significant ramifications for the election and as such it is very much unlikely that President Ramaphosa will lose his majority (201 seats needed for majority, ANC hold 249 seats). Best case scenario for the South African Rand will be a strong ANC election outcome and good policy reform.

Opinion Polling

Date	Polling Agency	ANC	DA	EFF	Others	Majority
Dec 2018	IRR	56	18	11	14	38
Sep 2018	Afrobarometer	48	11	11	3	37
Sep 2018	IRR	52	23	13	10	29
June 2018	Ipsos	60	13	7	2	47

AUSTRALIAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS (MAY AT EARLIEST FOR SIMULTANEOUS ELECTION)

The next election must be held by May 2019 for half of the State Senators and on or before November 2019 for House of Representatives and Territory Senators. Despite relatively robust economic growth and unemployment tracking at 6yr lows, the main opposition (Labour) to the ruling Liberal and National coalition is set to win the 2019 by a landslide. Largely this had been due to the backbench revolt which saw former PM Malcom Turnbull ousted in August 2018, whereby the former PM had been quickly replaced by Scott Morrison, which in in turn had angered voters. Given that many expect PM Morrison to suffer a sizeable loss, the PM could potentially call a dual election for the first time since 1972 in order to gain more time to shore up support, however, this is seen a relatively unlikely. Currently, the Liberal/National coalition hold 74 seats (76 seats needed for a majority), while Labour hold 69 seats.

Opinion Polling

Source: Ipsos, Essential and Newspoll voting intentions.

CANADIAN FEDERAL ELECTIONS (OCTOBER)

Federal elections in Canada will take on October 21st. Since Justin Trudeau’s historic win in 2015, both Trudeau and the Liberal party have seen their approval rating fall, while data from Abacus noted that 58% would like to see a different party take charge in Ottawa. However, this is not that significant given that Canada use a first past-the-post voting system. As a reminder, Justin Trudeau had won the 2015 election with 39.5% of the vote. That said, the ruling Liberal party has been losing its grip on power with Conservatives winning Ontario elections, which had been held by Liberals for 15yrs. That said, while approval ratings may have fallen and oppositions beginning to gain a foothold. Justin Trudeau’s Liberal party remain ahead in opinion polling.

Source: CBC